A Dyke A Broad #80 The Ouf Edition
Macron fights off the extreme right in France, but is that enough to hold Europe together?
Hello from France!
I spent most of Sunday actively ignoring the French election in the way that children have of covering their own eyes and pretending they’ve managed to make everybody else disappear. This worked until the afternoon, in large part because Macron was ahead in the polls, and I wasn’t worried about Russian hackers gaming the vote because French voting is totally old school. They still use paper ballots that you shove into a box, followed by a monitor ritually proclaiming, “Louise Martin has voted,” giving the voting process all the ceremonial power it deserves. I saw a friend vote once, and practically got chills when they intoned, Louise Martin a voté.
The jig was up when I got a text from a Czech friend busy imagining the impact of a Le Pen win—not on France, but the rest of Europe. Already, she said, Putin has had unleashed something ugly, and whatever Russia doesn’t gobble up in Eastern Europe will be fair game for other greedy nations. Her mother, for instance, said Hungary was already eying the snack-sized part of Slovakia which speaks Hungarian —though Putin may well get it first.
While Slovakia is a member of the European Union, and should theoretically be protected by its allies, a victory by the anti-EU, Putin-pal Le Pen would have guaranteed an EU so weakened that there probably would have been no response if somebody laid their grubby, authoritarian fingers on the country.
Even with Macron staying on, it’s a question—will the nations of the EU, especially the reluctant Germany, really go to bat for a nation of only 5 ½ million people if Putin continues his quest to rebuild the USSR?
It wouldn’t be the first time the West has misguidedly appeased an empire-minded bully hoping to preserve their own peace. After all, in the 1938 agreement in Munich they promised to protect the Czechs from Hitler, but when push came to shove they let Hitler take it without a fight. Surely he would only bite off what he could safely chew and digest. Surely he wouldn’t dare come after them. So why not sacrifice the Czechs to prevent a major war?
Well, we all know how that turned out—that the Czechs were only an appetizer for Adolph. But we’ve either forgotten the lesson, or think it doesn’t apply to us. Either is possible. Even pre-Covid times seem distant and unreal to most people. As for the hubris of exceptionalism, believing things will turn out differently this time… Putin couldn’t possibly… It’s something we’ve all fallen prey to.
To some extent the region’s future depends on how much pro-EU Macron is distracted with events at home. He captured only 58.54 % of the vote, while Le Pen did much better than last time at 41.46 %. And while that was enough for my French friends to let out a relieved, “Ouf,” there are already plenty of people crying foul. Not that the election was dirty, but that Macron shouldn’t imagine that he has a mandate. People were voting against Le Pen, and not for him.
Critics said the same in 2017 when he got better numbers and the abstention rate was lower than this year, when it reached a record 28%, so I expect demos and strikes and plenty of tear gas in the upcoming months.
BTW, here’s a good article by Helen Lewis from the last election about the people who do actively vote for Macron.
It’s worth remembering, though, that while Macron did pick up anti-Le Pen votes, Le Pen picked up some anti-Macron’s. And in the first round, when most people were already voting strategically, third place finisher, the ultra left authoritarian populist Jean-Luc Mélenchon, actually picked up a lot of votes from more moderate socialists and environmentalists, everybody who just wanted someone from the left in the final round. He, nevertheless, has felt perfectly entitled to throw tantrums all week declaring that whoever won, Le Pen or Macron, they should make him prime minister if his party does well in the upcoming legislative elections.
What’s good for the goose is good for the gander. Mélenchon doesn’t represent as many people as he thinks. So if Macron has to make more concessions this time, it doesn’t necessarily have to be in favor of another Putin bootlicker. He could just as well pick a prime minister from the rational left.
In more good news for democracy…
The populist ultra right also lost in the tiny Balkan nation of Slovenia, a UE Member, where fresh-faced liberal Robert Golob thoroughly defeated Trump-admirer and three time prime minister Janez Janša in an election billed, according to The Guardian, a ‘referendum on democracy.’ Le Monde has a useful article, too.
Here’s hoping that these elections represent a trend, and that those who value democracy manage to re-create a real and viable center, pulling in all those justifiably disgruntled with the status quo, tempted by the extremes’ fairy tales of quick fixes.
Women in Ukraine Still Need Help
So, it would be great if you can throw a few bucks to my Ukrainian friends supporting Ukrainian women.
That’s it for this week,
Gruntledly yours,
Keyly Oufswell