Kelly At Large #121 Another retirement edition
In which Macron strong-arms the strong-armers in France, and we wait for the fall-out.
Hello from Paris where things are a stinky, rioty mess.
On Thursday, Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne announced that the government would be invoking article 49.3 of the 1958 constitution which allows them to bypass a final vote in the Assembly on the retirement reform. “We cannot bet on the future of our pensions…This reform is necessary.”
Even though the move was perfectly legal, Macron is being called a dictator for not continuing on to a final vote in the Assembly.
Sunday, TV journalists hung out at markets where almost everybody had changed their tune, said they weren’t against the reform at all. But it was Macron’s fault if it wasn’t popular. His prime minister didn’t present it well, should have done the work of persuasion, and now, he shouldn’t have used strong-arm methods. He was anti-democratic. A bully. If there are violent demonstrations, well, what did he expect?
I could almost hear the same voices saying, “She got what she was asking for. Bitch made me do it.”
As for me, I wish article 49.3 hadn’t been invoked. That the process had played out—right from the very start. And whose fault is it, that it was derailed? Not Macron’s. Not Borne’s.
I seem to remember screamy members of the Assembly shutting down debate so issues couldn’t be discussed or voted on. Unions, meanwhile, demanded the proposal be withdrawn and shut down the country when he refused, becoming violent long before Macron invoked article 49.3.
And rather than reporting on the facts inspiring the reform, and encouraging all the parties to negotiate, far too many journalists focused on repeating oppositions claims that the government was acting tyrannically merely by introducing the issue of reform—as if the government had no democratic right to do it, no obligation to care about things like solvency. FFS. What do they think a government is for?
Even supposing that the reform had gone to a final vote in the Assembly (where it may well have died), even that process was hardly democratic at this point because there had been so little debate and because so many members of parliament have received threats, (including actual physical attacks on their offices with promises to do worse if they support the reform, like kill them in their beds or burn them alive) that any vote could hardly be called free or democratic.
Members of Macron’s centrist party, but also the moderate conservative center party Les Républicains have been especially under pressure, and facing even more as opposition from both the right and left have introduced no confidence votes in the parliament, which, if successful, would mean the bill would be withdrawn, the legislature dissolved, and new elections held.
The Guardian reports that because the Républicains leader, Éric Ciotti, has ordered his MPs not to vote against the government on the grounds it could lead to “chaos”:
Ciotti’s constituency office in the southern city of Nice was ransacked at the weekend. Windows were broken and graffiti on the walls threatened riots unless he supported the no-confidence vote…Other MPs from Les Républicains party said they were receiving hundreds of threatening emails a day.
“It’s as if tomorrow they want to decapitate us,” said Frédérique Meunier from the Corrèze, telling BFMTV that the emails politicians were receiving amounted to harassment. The constituency offices of MPs from Macron’s centrist Renaissance party were also vandalised.
And of course, effigies of Macron are being burned.
But sure, let’s criticize Macron for anti-democratic strong-arm tactics while giving every other French citizen the right to act as demagogically and violently as they like. It’s all his fucking fault.
Ugh.
Violence is becoming more and more normal here. More exaggerated. Democracy is in retreat. Without debate, a democratic vote based on reason and compromise never had a chance. And because journalists have largely been MIA, preferring to cover the demos and screaming parliamentarians rather than budget meetings, it’s still not clear that the average French citizen understands that a retirement reform is not just necessary but urgent. Even if the current system were totally fair (and it’s not), it’s simply not sustainable.
According to the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, with one of the lowest retirement ages in the industrialized world, France spends more than most other countries on pensions at nearly 14% of economic output.
This year it’s going broke. Just like in the U.S., funds for retirement come exclusively from a dedicated payroll tax, not the general budget. And after having a few years of surplus, the pension system is expected to hit a deficit this year.
A report from the Pensions advisory council (COR) summarized in Le Monde, predicts that:
…under the most favorable scenario, with a productivity growth rate of 1.6% per year, it is possible that the deficit could be absorbed by the mid-2030s. However, if current rules and practices are maintained, the elimination of the deficit would be delayed until the mid-2050s. The report emphasized this would only occur with a productivity rate of +1.6% per year. If the productivity growth rate were to be 0.7% or even 1% (the average value observed over 2009-2019), the pension system would remain in the red.
It makes sense to raise the retirement age a little. And if not that, what? More loans? For a country which already hocked the family jewels during Covid? Remember that? The pandemic? The government spent with open hands not just supporting business (which pays for retirement), but paid for care for all those gazillion patients.
The opposition is great at saying no, burning cars, and paralyzing the country, but not so good at coming up with alternative strategies except the perennial demand to raise taxes on the rich, which are already so high that many people change their fiscal residency by spending 6 months + one day anywhere but France.
Another option I’ve seen bandied about on Twitter: women should just have more children, so there are more workers to tax.
I’ll get right on it.
In Other News
How dare lesbians organize without the permission of men…?
That’s it for this time.
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Disgruntledly yours,
xoxo K